Regime read: **MILD RISK-ON** (score +1/8). DXY is strengthening (+0.26%), a headwind for long crypto scalps. VIX at 15.0 is calm — normal spread/liquidity conditions expected. NQ futures are up 0.11% — supportive of risk-on crypto flow during the US/London overlap. Note: BTC/NQ correlation is currently low — the TradFi read above should carry less weight than usual today. BTC dominance is 59.2% (-0.27pp vs yesterday). USDT dominance is falling (-0.05pp) — dry powder is deploying, tailwind for longs. CVD/price divergence detected on BTCUSDT over the last 24h — watch for a stop run or reversal before chasing the current move. 3 risk flag(s) raised — see below before sizing up.
Regime Score
Signal
Score
DXY
+0
VIX
+1
NQ
+0
USDT.D
+0
Flags
BTC/NQ correlation is low (0.02 over 20d) — treat this as a decoupled regime and downweight DXY/NQ signals.
BTCUSDT OI up 7.3% over lookback — leverage stacking, stop-run risk.
BTCUSDT CVD/price divergence: price up (0.42%) but taker flow down — possible exhaustion/reversal setup.